Prestudy on Establishing a Research Project on Forecasting Methodology

Project summary

Sweden's transport system faces big challenges when it comes to meeting the needs of private individuals and businesses for efficient travel and transport and at the same time drastically reducing climate-affecting emissions. One area that has been identified as important for reducing emissions is shifting long-distance travel from air and road to rail. In order to be able to evaluate the effects of, and the effectiveness of, various measures, for example capacity increases in the railway network, accurate forecast models and effect relationships are required.

The purpose of this pre-study project has been to meet the needs pointed out above by pointing out the direction and shape of a research project at KTH in forecasting methodology for long-distance travel with a focus on rail. The preliminary study has mapped development and data needs in the area, possible approaches that have been used and investigated internationally, and the need for competence building. The project team aims to follow up the pre-study project with a proposal for the direction and scope of the first years of such a research project.

The preliminary study has had three main sub-goals. The first has been to map the development needs of the existing forecast model for long-distance (national and international) travel in today's Sampers. The second has been to gather knowledge about the state-of-the-art and trends in forecasts for long-haul travel, with particular focus on designated areas where development needs exist in Sampers. The intention is also to identify any deficiencies in the state-of-the-art. The third goal has been to map the existing research competence that exists within KTH and neighbouring research environments regarding forecast methodology for railways and long-distance travel, as well as to identify the need for competence building in the form of junior or senior researchers in the area.

Funding

Swedish National Transport Administration (Trafikverket) (grant no. TRV 2022/32545)

Duration

28 February 2023 -- 20 November 2023

Project team

KTH Division of Transport Planning
Erik Jenelius
Oskar Fröidh
Zhenliang Ma
Mohammad Maghrour Zefreh
Josef Andersson

KTH Division of Transport and System Analysis
Daniel Jonsson
Qian Wang